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Masking & Preparation

To begin this venture we need to clean the metal on the car. After we clean the metal, make sure it’s dry before we begin to mask the car, also do a last minute check to be sure it’s free of all dirt grease and other contaminants.

Now it’s time to mask the car, and be sure to mask all that you don’t want painted leaving no masking hanging of the car, that would get in the way of a nice paint job. The main idea of the whole thing is to produce the best quality paint possible with the given surroundings, it is preferred that you have a paint booth, but if not, make sure that the area that you use to perform the work is ultra clean and dust free.

After the car has been masked it’s time to get ready to spray the primer, once again make sure that you have cleaned your surroundings, it’s best to have some water on the floor to keep the dust down, once you are confident that the area is clean then you can begin checking the spray guns to be sure that they are clean. This is a very important step especially if they’re not your guns, dirty guns will make an ugly paint job there for wasting all of your time.

Now that you have determined that the paint guns are clean, make sure that your respirator is in good working order. Now be sure that you have all the products that you need to perform the primer job on the car. You will need primer, reducer and catalyst, you will also need strainers, stir sticks and a measuring device.

It’s best not to have to leave the paint booth during the time that your priming the car. Reducer comes in different temperatures and you need to know what temp is best for your working conditions.

The temps are as follows, their is a high temp that is designed to dry slower when it’s hot in the area where your working, high temp is good for 80 degrees and up, theirs also a mid temp, this probably the most popular temp used this is best used from 55 to 80 degrees and is designed to dry faster to make up for the colder temp, due to the fact primer will run easier in the cold weather. Now we have low temp reducer this will dry extremely slow therefore for giving the primer a better chance to run. I tell you all this in an effort to help you better understand the products that you are working with, the more you know the better armed you are for problems when they happen.

Now it’s time to enter the paint booth, and as you do pay attention to the booth filters and be sure that they sure clean also. Now get your can of primer and read the instructions on the side, usually the mix is 4:1 or 4 parts primer to one part reducer and a cap or two of catalyst and for the best results follow these instructions. After you spray the first coat of primer, you will need to wait 15 to 20 minute before you can spray the next and so on, the way I like to do this is to give the body work areas a coat or two first to build them up. The whole reason we use primer is is to give the paint a smooth surface to stick to and give the metal some protection from the elements, it’s usually a good idea to get 4 or 5 good coats on the car.

If you are really serious about the way that you want it to look the you might want to take the primer one step farther and use an etching primer before you spray the urethane or epoxy primer, an etching primer will give the top coat just a little more to stick to. Etching primer has no building qualities there for it’s not used for smoothing out waves in your work, but it will make the primer stick allot better.

I do suggest that you always use a urethane primer,and not lacquer type,as lacquer can and will shrink urethane or epoxy is recommended for best results. Epoxy is a very hard primer to sand but it’s extremely tough, and urethane is I think probably your best choice,because it’s high building and easy sanding, their are a lot of brands to choose from, I use DuPont euro myself but it’s all up to you to choose that.

Now that your card is primed, it’s time to remove the masking, and I like to do this while it’s still a little wet for the sake of ease, just be very careful about how you do it, you don’t want to screw up all that nice work, so just take it slow and easy while pulling the masking off your car.

(Sanding)

Well now the hard part is here, before you start to sand the car you’ll want to be sure that it’s been guide coated, this will make it easier for you to get an ultra smooth finish. Heres where we weed the boys form the men, if your trying to do a show finish on the car that your painting, you will want to sand it by hand with water running on it all the time.

This is the hard part,and you will have lazy people that will want to use a machine to do this, this is just a word to the wise, you have allot better control over a hand block. The best way to produce this type of high quality work is to have the best control over it that you can, offten a machine will go through your primer. If your trying to produce show quality work this would mean priming that area again I.E. more time spent, this is time that could be spent better doing other things.

Now I will explain a bit about what a guide coat is, this is it in a nut-shell. The guide coat is the step right after the car has been primed, you should do this before you pull the masking, what this in tails is misting a light coat of black paint over the primer so that you can see the low spots in your work, and no matter how good you are, you will have low spots. The idea behind this is to sand all the guide coat off with out going through to the metal on your car.

Now it’s time to start the actual sanding of the car, you need to pay close attention to detail on this part of the paint job, the better you sand it, the better it will look. I usually start with 320 grit wet paper on a medium hard block, this grit is good for getting the guide coat smoothed out, their will most likely be some small low spots that will require either spot filler or more primer. This is one of those areas where you need to pay a little attention to detail, here you will need to look at the depth of the low spot and think about it, how low is it will primer alone fill it, or will it take spot filler and then primer.

Now that you’ve finished that part it’s time to move on to the next grit of paper, I usually move to 400 grit on a medium- hard sanding block from here, you don’t want to move up to far because it can leave scratches form the previous grit of paper, so a word to the wise, don’t get in a hurry and move up to far a once this will leave seeable scratches in your work. After you’ve sanded the whole car with the 400 grit wet paper then inspect it for bare metal and guide coat still there.

The whole idea with sanding is to make the primer look the way that you want the paint to look, I sand my primer until it has a smooth shiny finish on it, as if it were the paint on the car.

You need to have a vision of how you want it to look, the one thing that you need to know is, the better you want it to look, the more you will pay for materials. Just a word of caution cheap paint materials are just exactly that cheap!!!!! and don’t use them if you want a nice paint job.

You might save some money but you will not save the agony of a crappy looking paint job. Think about this before you go and buy cheap primers and paints, do I love my car or is it just some turd to push me to work and the old ladies and back, if you love your car then don’t put cheap crap on it.

Now that I’m through with my little lecture on low quality products, it’s time to move on to the next sanding step. From 400 grit I usually move up to 600 grit wet paper, this is where I usually stop unless requested to go one more step, this is really as far as you need to go with the sanding. After you finish with the 600 grit do one final inspection of the work before cleaning it.

Well now it’s time to clean the car, for this just use soap and water, just like washing a car normally. You should blow it dry though, this being the main difference between this and a regular wash job, be sure to blow all the water out of the little cracks in the car, like the cowl area, under the hood, between the doors and in the trunk lid. Believe me this will blow water on your paint during the actual painting of the car, so be very through about this step.

If you miss some and it happens to get in your paint during the spraying process it will bubble the paint, the paint will look horrible so be sure to get all of the water out of the car first.

Now it’s to mask for the actual paint, for this refer back to the top of this page. Masking right is an art and you better take this part very serious if you want a good job.

Now that you’ve masked your car it’s time to put it in the paint booth, hopefully this is a temperature controlled booth, in any case when you roll that car in the booth all you should have to do is clean and spray, again before you put your car in the booth make sure that it’s ultra clean in there and ready to go.

Now make sure that you have everything you need in there to paint the car I.E. paint, reducer, catalyst, stir sticks, strainers and stir sticks and a measuring stick. Once again check your respirator and be sure that it’s working properly, tie your hair back and if you have a beard cover your face.

Follow all instructions on the back of the paint can to the letter or it could cause problems with the out come of your paint.

Now that you have the car in the booth, be sure to double check the masking on it, what you are looking for here is perfection and nothing less.

This means everything that if you don’t want it painted it must be masked for sure, their is no room for error here. Now you need to take a look at the supplies that you have to do the job with, and inventory them to be sure that you have everything you need to complete the job, the last thing you need is to find that you don’t have something right in the middle of painting the car. Here’s a list of what you will need for the job.

Supply List

1) Paint

2) sealer

3) reducer

4) Catalyst

5) Tack Cloths, preferably designed for clear coat

6) Measuring Cups

7) Stir Sticks

Measuring Stick

9) Strainers

10) Respirator in working order

Now I will give you a few things to think about, if your painting with metallic paints then you must pay allot attention to the settings on your paint gun. Metallic paints will tend to get lighter if the pressure goes up and darker if it goes down, your fluid flow and fan on your gun will also effect this.

Now I will give you a basic mixing chart, most paints will follow this chart.

Instructions

1) get your paint ready to pour.

2) make sure that your mixing cup is clean.

3) Get your strainer and sticks.

4) Put a strainer in the top of the measuring cup.

5) Now pay close attention to the level of paint in the cup.

Paint Mixing Table. Always be sure to read and follow the paint manufactures mixing guide lines. These mixing ratios are just a basic idea of what to do, things will change with different manufactures.

Recommended Air Pressure At Gun Head. Paint Mix Ratios. Paint Product.
25-40 PSI Mix 4:1:1 Base Coat

25-40 PSI Mix 4:1:1 Sealer

25-40 PSI Mix 4:1:1 Clear Coat

25-40 PSI Mix 2:1:1 Primer Coat

When using a paint gun, you try to achieve a certain spray pattern without any heavy or light areas, in the pattern chart above you would try to achieve pattern (A).

Now a lesson on gun angle. Their are only two angles you should ever need to use when holding a spray gun, and they are 45 and 90 degrees angles to the surface of the car that you are spraying, these angles will give you the best outcome possible, and also you should try to keep the spray gun at about 6 to 8 inches from your work. If you get much closer you will more then likely cause a run in the paint and, much more distance and you will get a dry look to your paint job, you also need to get a feel for the speed that you need to move the gun according to the air pressure and fluid flow of the gun.
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Trading Platforms are pools of capital that invest in a wide variety of financial instruments including stocks, bonds, commodities, ETF’s and foreign exchange. These pools of capital may be a number of legal entities; however, the most common is known as a PPP, an acronym for Private Placement Programs. Private Placement Trading Programs are not offered to the general public. They are exactly what their name implies, offerings of membership interest to a select group of chosen investors who meet certain financial requirements.

The minimum investment in these Private Placement Programs can often be quite high and require a lockup period, where the capital is committed to the Trade Program for a certain amount of time. The minimum investment levels and principal commitment periods vary depending on the type of investments and the objective of the investment. One year lock ups are not uncommon and in some investments the lock up period may be even longer. Lock ups serve a very important function. They provide the Trade Platform Managers and Platform Traders with time in which to obtain results for the investors. Platform Traders want to know that the capital allocations they have been given to trade are for a long enough period of time to allow a particular trading strategy time to mature.

If you were to look at the returns of outstanding Platform Traders you would see profitable results over time; however, in the short term they may have a period of negative returns. If your interest is in traders with no down periods, please read no further, as they do not exist, contrary to popular belief. There is no such thing as free money. Trading involves risk. Every investor dreams of opening the door today and finding tomorrows Wall Street Journal, but this only exists in fantasy. Platform Trading requires hard work, tremendous discipline, patience and superb talent. The fact is very few people have the gifts to be a successful trader. The Platform Traders at the very top of their peers are rewarded with staggering wealth. Platform Traders utilize many strategies to help determine profitable trades, such as macro analysis, price theory, fundamental analysis, value analysis and many more investment strategies. What superior and outstanding Platform Traders can do is make enough winning trades over time, irrespective of what strategy they may use to accumulate trading profits. However, a number of their trades will not be winners. A large part of successful Private Placement Program trading is risk management; controlling losses and preserving investment capital.

One of the very basic risk management techniques utilized by Private Placement Program Traders is only risking a very small percentage of the investment capital on every trade. It is usually between one half and two percent on a particular trade. If a trade loss hits a defined percentage allocation, the trade is closed out. The average investor has an extremely difficult time taking a loss. In fact, it is a human tendency to hold on to losing trades and cut winning trades short, which is the very opposite of what great Platform Traders do. Risk management systems can get very complex and Platform Traders often write complex algorithms to manage risk when there are many positions and trade strategies running all at once.

The advent of the computer has radically revolutionized trading, just as it has every facet of our lives. Modern Trading Platforms are heavily dependent on mathematics and the hard sciences. Most Platform Traders today have advances formal education and training in mathematics, probabilities, physics, computer science, economics and engineering. Trade rooms are more similar to busy computer driven laboratories than the old image of guys in a boiler-room shouting into two telephones at one time. Almost all orders are input electronically and trades are matched up by sophisticated software. Private Placement Programmers and software engineers are indispensable to successful Private Placement Programs and Trade Platforms.

As mentioned earlier, Platform Traders have many products to trade and a huge number of global exchanges to execute the trades. The most well-known exchange in the world is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). When Platform Traders make a trade, that trade is executed on an exchange. The NYSE, CME, NYMEX, ICE, CBOE and NASDAQ are the largest U.S. exchanges. In Europe the LSE, Euronext and Frankfort Exchange are largest. In commodities much of the execution is done on the Globex, an electronic exchange. Platform Traders use the exchanges to buy and sell trillions of dollars of stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, oil, euro-dollars, CMO’s, ETF’s and hundreds of other securities, currencies and derivatives in efforts to make profits for themselves and investors.

Private Placement Program Traders can make profits by buying a particular instrument or by shorting, (selling it) betting the price will go down. Some Platform Traders buy and sell similar instruments simultaneous, betting on the change in price between the two instruments; this is called arbitrage and spread trading. Other Platform Traders employ option strategies, such as writing options, writing straddles, strangles, butterflies and condors. Option strategies can quickly become extremely complex and are a highly specialized area of trading which requires extraordinary expertise.

Private Placement Trading Platforms utilize margin to buy and sell all of the various instruments they trade. Margin is simply a partial payment for the instrument. Most people are familiar with margin on stocks. Margins are met with cash, period. Contrary to what some people may believe, the only instrument that is good for backing a trade position is cash. When a profit is made, it is credited to the Trade Platforms books that day; when a loss is taken it is debited from the Trade Platforms books that day. Private Placement Platform Trading is a cash business; gains and losses are marked to market each day. Trade Platform Managers should know by between midnight and two a.m. each trading day where they stand. The Private Placement Trade Platforms maintain what is called a customer segregated account with an FCM. This account is where the Trade Platform Investors’ funds are held. An independent capital account is established for each Trade Platform Investor in order to provide accurate accounting on a monthly or quarterly basis. The Private Placement Platforms’ funds are deposited into a master segregated funds account to be used for margin in trading.

Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, ABN AMRO, MF Global, JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America are all FCMs. These companies, as well as handling trades for independent Trade Platforms for many years, have had their own internal proprietary trading desk or Trade Platforms. Some of these trade desks are famous such as Goldman’s Alpha Fund, Morgan Stanley’s PDT (Process Driven Trading) Platform and Deutsche Bank’s legendary SABA Trading Program, led by Boaz Weinstein. The new regulatory environment is forcing many of the banks to divest themselves of proprietary Trading Platforms. This is making for a large talent pool comprising the best and brightest traders available for Private Placement Programs, Private Hedge Funds and Trading Platforms.

Private Placement Programs and Trading Platforms often use what is known as notionalization or notional funding to increase the leverage that the Trade Platform may use. The Trading Platforms may leverage its trading capital as much as ten times, meaning that One Hundred Million Dollars ($100,000,000) may be traded as it was a Billion Dollars ($1,000,000,000). Leverage, while giving the ability to greatly increase the returns on cash can also lead to significant loss. The old adage that “leverage is a double-edge sword” is very true. Notionalization absolutely must be constantly monitored and adjusted, depending on margin requirements and market conditions. The Private Placement Platform Managers have investment committees that are responsible for determining notional trading levels. Notionalization is a very powerful tool for the Private Placement Trading Platforms.

In conclusion, when it comes to Private Placement Programs, the minimum investment can be high and the risk can be high as well. However, the reward can be great, great enough to easily justify the investment and risk for one who has the means with which to get involved in such an investment.

MB Assets provides qualified clients direct access to documented high-performance Private Placement Programs and Trade Platforms with significant past performance; whereas potential future performance comprising high-leverage such that double and even triple-digit returns on cash could be achieved; however, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

THIS COMMUNICATION IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY OR INVEST IN ANY PRIVATE PLACEMENT PROGRAM OR PLATFORM. ANY SUCH OFFER OR SOLICITATION CAN BE MADE ONLY BY MEANS OF AN EXEMPT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT AND TRADE PLATFORM OFFERING MEMORANDUM (WHICH CONTAIN A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF RISK FACTORS). PARTICIPATION IN PRIVATE PLACEMENT PROGRAMS IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS.

The author, Dane Brigadier and MB Asset Holdings, LLC (“MB Assets”) are not Certified Financial Advisors, Registered Securities Brokers, Broker/Dealers and/or Stock Brokers. MB Assets is a business consultancy firm which provides advice to private individuals on or about business matters.

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4 Nov 2011 Institute for New Economic Thinking / CEU Background: The Greek PM has offered to resign. George Soros is Founder and Honorary Chairman of the Board, CEU. George Soros — Thank you. This 2-day workshop is discussing the theory and practice of social change. The euro crisis is a very good practical example for studying it. You’ve been distributed a copy of the paper I gave describing my conceptual framework based on the twin-concept of fallibility and reflexivity. I had basically explored this mainly in the context of financial markets. There I used this two-way connection between people’s perceptions and the actual state of affairs to develop a theory of boom-bust. A tendency in every bubble…. there is an element of reality, something that is happening in the real world that is in some way misconstrued in people’s perception. There is an inter-play between the misconception and the tendency that is initially self-reinforcing. Where both the tendency and the misconception is reinforced by this inter-play…. this feedback mechanism…..eventually, the perception runs so far away from reality that it becomes unsustainable. And it reaches a plateau, a twilight period. And eventually it generates a self-reinforcing process in the opposite direction [!]. That is the boom-bust process of a bubble. That actually occurs in financial markets very often. So the theory that financial markets always tend towards equilibrium is false [Wow]. Markets can tend towards …

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www.mogulwerks.com **This is the OFFICIAL** Import 4 cyl Drift 4cyl 2 Stroke 4 Stroke V6 something Subaru flat 4 VW Aircooled Weedwhacker ***All film credit goes to user liljeygotstyle with his original untagged, unknown, gem of a video called ‘fx’ …first hosted April 28th, 2008 I discovered this video years ago and decided it was time for the world to see it, so i rehosted it *** www.youtube.com **All Annotations and Captions were added by yours truly =)**

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This is an excellent question and one that I have heard all week. Greece is almost half way around the world…it is a relatively small economy…comparatively speaking we don’t trade much with Greece…Isn’t it Greece’s problem?

Perhaps a simple photo will illustrate the issue here. As a kid, I loved to play dominoes with my grandmother. In my version of dominoes, we stood them on end very close to one another – one at a time – until we had placed every domino from the box in such a way where if you tipped the last one, a sequence would occur where every domino fell as a result. It took far longer to set this “game” up than it did to see it call come down.

Greece is a small country thousands of miles around the world with which we do a small amount of business (comparatively). Portugal is closer to Greece and together they do a larger portion of business. Spain is a more robust economy with dealings in Portugal and Greece.

As governments, each of these countries probably owns Greek bonds and other Greek investments. Banks in each of these nations have loaned money to Greece, both to the government and businesses in all likelihood. If Greece defaults on the amount of money that it owes, these two nations and their banks suffer a loss.

Banks all over the world are already doing a high wire act to enable their institutions to survive. Add in a default by the Greek government, and it triggers a default by several banks (for example in Portugal), followed by a default by Portugal’s government, which leads to trouble for Spain’s banks, followed by trouble for the Spanish Government, followed by Germany and France, followed ultimately at some point by the United States. The U.S. stock markets were contemplating this game of dominoes last week, when drops of 10% and more occurred.

But today U.S. Market trading is up markedly. What happened?

Over the weekend, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (which the United States is the largest shareholder and financial backer of last resort) promised to fund a bailout of these weak European Nations so that the game of dominoes doesn’t take place and destroy the entire world wide financial system.

In essence what was done was create a fire break – a clearing between the trees that prevents a fire from spreading unabated. The break is intended to bound any fire by making it difficult to encompass additional land. (It is akin to removing three or four dominoes from the line to prevent the entire line from going down while it is being built).

As any firefighter will tell you, some firebreaks work and others don’t. The effectiveness is a function of the intensity of the fire and the conditions (like high winds and lack of moisture) at the time of the fire. The same thing holds true for this bailout – it is not a certainty that it will work, and it comes with offsetting problems. But it, like the U.S. bailout of the banks, is a better solution than the chaos that would result from no bailout.

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The B side of moonlight affair, actually the credit should go to only axel breitung, cause there isnt any part of cliff turner’s voice on it. its a wonderful and happy tune, with a very similar sound to silent circle, not suprising since axel breitung is part of silent circle.

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For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970’s, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.

Marginal Trading

Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term “lot” refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency’s future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country’s economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank’s interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.

Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX

FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.

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2010 is ready for the history books and most of us are glad that year is finally in the rearview mirror. Worldwide economic collapse was avoided in 2009 and the global economy stabilized and strengthened some in 2010. However, the pace of recovery was very modest in 2010, constrained by the continued effects of the US recession suppressing demand and curtailing imports, and the EU euro dollar debt crisis diverting hundreds of billions from the capital markets to fund internal emergency loans. With all the conflicting forecasts and lackluster predictions, what will the future hold for 2011? Here’s my forecast for the coming year.

The World View from the US Perspective

Overall, the world economic recovery is very fragile and economic power is rapidly concentrating in just a few nations outside the US; the OPEC oil exporting countries, the European Union, and China.

OPEC

It’s old news that economic power continues to grow in the oil exporting nations that we send our dollars to. What might be new news is that the much anticipated peak in worldwide output occurred in 2007 and 2008, much sooner than most predictions. China’s emergence as a major crude importer caused worldwide demand to outstrip production capacity for the first time in history, resulting in spot market prices that reached record levels. Remember $150 per barrel crude and its effect on fuel prices?

While many nations export crude, the OPEC cartel in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, tries to balance their production to have supply exactly meet worldwide demand. OPEC’s goal is to get maximum value for its diminishing resource, while balancing the knowledge that too little supply will drive up prices and push the world economy into recession (which results in lower production and revenue for their member countries). Expect the Saudis to vary their production to try and hold spot market price at $90-$100/bbl to achieve this balance.

However, China’s emergence onto the world stage to compete for available oil supplies means that the era of cheap energy is ending. We just haven’t realized it yet because the Great Recession in the US (the world’s biggest importer) has temporarily reduced its internal consumption and made more supply available on the world market.

In the meantime, China has further increased its crude oil imports, taking up some of the slack. In this scenario the stage is set for an astronomical increase in oil prices when the US economy recovers and returns to importing at previous levels to meet its energy needs.

The OPEC bottom line – The most likely scenario is for a slow, steady increase in crude oil prices throughout 2011 as the global economy gradually recovers.

An alternative scenario is for crude prices to remain essentially stable if demand is suppressed by continuing recession in the United States or China’s real estate bubble bursts, sending it into economic recession (see below for more on this possibility).

Europe

The formerly robust European Union is more and more often being viewed as a misfit conglomeration of “have” and “have not” countries.

Germany and France are the economic powerhouses of the EU. The economic weaklings are the so-called PIIGS countries, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, whose national budgets have been fueled by huge levels of deficit spending for several decades. In many cases now servicing the associated debt consumes double digit percentages of their national budget (Ireland’s is an astonishing 32%!) and is straining them to the breaking point.

There is substantial fear that these countries could default on their national debt obligations, dragging down the value of the euro dollar and endangering the economies of every EU member. In 2010 Germany led the bailout effort for Greece, which has had to reduce its national budget by a whopping 12%. The reduction in traditional government services and associated layoffs has not been received well by its citizens as news coverage of the many nationwide demonstrations has shown.

Ireland, which offered token resistance to the idea of a EU bailout, was next on the list. Arguably, it’s in the worst financial shape of any of the EU member nations for two reasons. First, many years of deficit spending in concert with so many of it’s sibling EU members.

However, unlike other EU nations, Ireland also had its own real estate bubble growing, which finally (and inevitably) burst. Irish banks began to go insolvent when the values of mortgaged real estate dramatically declined. To quell a rising financial panic the national government then took the bold (and very risky) step of publically guaranteeing all deposits, after the fact, in order to stave off economic collapse. Unfortunately, the enormous resources required to make good on that guarantee coupled with inadequate regulatory oversight to spot troubled banks before they failed, exceeded even what the Irish government could muster. The Irish government is now sporting a new $100B+ EU loan to bailout its banks and keep the economy functioning.

But, like Greece, the Irish bailout came at a cost of laying off thousands of government workers (further pushing up unemployment), cutting government salaries, and, most unfortunately, cutting the government pensions of those already retired. And also like Greece, Irish citizens are protesting in the streets over the reduction in salaries and services.

The creditworthiness of these countries had declined to the point where they were unable to borrow on the world market (at reasonable interest rates) to fund their governments, and they wouldn’t have been able to borrow at all if they had retained their national currency. Next on the bailout list may be Portugal or Spain.

Note that Great Britain, which still uses the pound sterling and not the euro, is currently running equally high budget deficits, although for fewer years than its European neighbors. It has begun budget reduction efforts driven by 2010 election results, which has resulted in the greatest civil service layoffs since World War II and has reduced this once proud world power, whose national anthem is Rule Britannia, to investigating the sale of the Royal Mail Service to a foreign company and exploring ways of sharing operating costs of its new aircraft carrier with rival France.

Will the value of the euro dollar collapse or be abandoned by some EU members? It’s unlikely in the intermediate term because the weaker nations don’t want to leave a currency backed by economically stronger nations. If stronger nations like Germany and France reverted back to the mark and franc, they would suffer an avalanche of capital inflow from those abandoning the weakened euro to seek currency stability.

The 2011 EU bottom line – The EU will remain intact and (with the exception of Great Britain) will remain committed to the euro. That stability is good for the world recovery. However, EU economies as a whole will underperform because of the hundreds of billions of euros in internal loans that will be diverted to bailout its weaker members. Look for the EU to develop some type of controls to prevent its deficit spending members from continuing to drag down the whole Union. The EU’s potential to be an economic powerhouse will be unfulfilled until the finances of its major members are set in order.

China

Economic power is rapidly shifting east and military power will soon follow. China is VERY rapidly moving beyond being merely a technologically backward player to becoming a dominant force on the world economic stage. One example of China’s pace of development is its achievement of being only the 3rd nation in the world to place a human being in orbit, a remarkable feat by any measure.

China is awash in the dollars amassed from their long term trade surplus with the US, so many in fact, that they cannot convert them into the yuan, the Chinese national currency, to directly power their economy because dumping such a huge amount of dollars on the open market to buy up the available yuan would severely devalue the dollar (sudden oversupply) and drive up the value of the yuan (sudden scarcity), making Chinese exports much more expensive. Obviously China doesn’t want to impair its export driven economy by making those exports more expensive.

So, what is China doing with all the dollars it’s holding but can’t convert? It’s almost literally buying entire countries and continents!

China is aggressively moving to secure sources of raw minerals to ensure that its economic development can continue. It has invested heavily in Australian mining companies to the point where Australia now derives a significant portion of its GDP from mineral sales to China. China wants to further increase its ownership stake in these Australian corporations, but the Aussie government has refused to allow further investment leading to majority ownership, fearing a complete takeover of its national mineral wealth.

China is also investing heavily in natural resources across the African continent. Africa has very few large cap mining corporations on the continent (DeBeers of South Africa being one of the few exceptions), so China is dealing directly with each country’s national government to negotiate exclusive deals to develop their mineral wealth.

For African nations, in exchange for the exclusive right (key words) to exploit their mineral resources China offers to use its financial and technological muscle to rapidly develop the mines, often located in remote areas, and associated infrastructure like rail lines and ports, along with guarantees to employ a large segment of a nation’s population in each mine’s operation.

This rags-to-riches promise is obviously attractive to impoverished governments with limited economic means to develop their mineral resources on their own, but it comes at a terrible price. So far the workforce for these mines has indeed been hired locally, but their new work situation is far from Utopian. In most cases they “work for the company store” as was common in the USA a century ago, are charged exorbitant rent for living in barracks far from home, and make nearly every purchase at high price from local retailers wholly owned by the company. As you might suspect, little is left to send home to the family after meeting these expenses.

Meanwhile, management remains firmly in the hands of the Chinese corporations, effectively preventing African nationals from gaining management experience and improving the intellectual capital of their country.

The effect of all this activity will be to eventually drive up the cost of strategic minerals worldwide as China locks up the remaining mineral resources essentially at the cost of extraction.

Finally, China is in the midst of its own housing bubble fueled by rampant real estate speculation, very similar to what the US experienced early in this century. The rapidly growing Chinese middle class has very few financial instruments to invest in, but real estate is available to anyone with sufficient cash to fund the purchase. In a Chinese version of Flip This House, individuals and extended families are investing in real estate for the sole purpose of the prospect of selling in the near future at substantial profit.

After watching the fallout when the bubble burst on the American market, Chinese officials recognize the dangers and are taking steps in their command-and-control economy to cool things off. Recently, foreigners have been limited to a purchase of a single home in China, the government is urging banks to curtail credit used for real estate purchases (not expected to have much of an effect since most purchases are 100% cash), and is talking about limiting the number of houses, apartments, or condos that their citizens can own at one time.

If the Chinese real estate bubble bursts causing a huge loss of personal net worth like the American bubble did, you can expect China’s internal consumption to dramatically decline, reducing the volume of consumer goods that China imports from around the world. A dramatic reduction in Chinese imports could tip the world back into recession as exporting nations lose the jobs and revenue exporting to China provides.

The 2011 China bottom line – China’s consumption of world resources has reached the point where it affects worldwide market pricing and availability. If China’s economy continues to perform well in the coming year, it will compete more aggressively on the open market for limited global resources.

Much depends on whether the government can reign in internal real estate speculation. The most probable scenario is that China will successfully cool off the overheated housing market that threatens its economy. However, if the real estate bubble bursts, then China’s new middle class will lose a significant portion of its wealth, driving down internal consumption. Dramatically reduced imports of luxury goods and high end manufactured products will impact the global recovery and could produce another global recession.

The 2011 World Economic Forecast

Most likely scenario – Slow, steady economic improvement as the EU powerhouses (Germany and France) continue to fund bailouts of its heavily indebted partners in the euro dollar and China avoids its own economic recession by deflating its real estate bubble.

Alternative scenario – Worldwide recession if several European nations abandon the euro dollar and revert to their own sovereign national currencies or China’s real estate bubble bursts, seriously reducing its internal consumption and the imports it drives. The recession could be severe in this scenario, since the United States’ own economic recovery will not have progressed to the point where it can make up for the reduced demand on the world market. The countries who will be least affected and could emerge as new economic superpowers would be Germany, France, and the OPEC countries who have amassed decades of oil trade surplus funds.

I share my economic forecast for the US in 2011 Economic Forecast – Part 2: The United States (US).

Which scenario will come to pass? It’s hard to tell because we haven’t been here before, but I’ve shared my best guess. Do you think I nailed it or do you have a different opinion? I look forward to your thoughtful comments, insight, and opinions.

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